| Tuesday May 13, 2008 | 07:55 (-6:00 ) CDT | Vol. 10 / Issue 20 |
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Tuesday's Trio of Terrible Tolls There are days that being a news/financial writer is not any fun. Most days, it's intensely interesting. You get to see the things play out as you've written and forecast them, usually much slower than you thought, but in the main it's pretty interesting work.
Then there are days like this one: The toll reporting. Call it "Tuesday's trio of terrible tolls" - here goes:
The death toll in what's now tagged as a 7.9 earthquake in China early Monday is expected to exceed 10-thousand. Perhaps by double...there's just so much damage to be cleaned up.
Just in time for the next quake, a reader has sent us a link to an antipodes map online. Kind of neat. We're about opposite the area in the Indian Ocean where new land should be popping up one of these days.
In Myanmar, the cyclone clean up continues and the death toll looks at the moment like about 32,000.
The death toll from the weekend tornadoes is up to 22, and other media are starting to report that 'them winds' we've been talking about for many months are now on a record pace. Yeah, we noticed.
And on the financial side, we're probably really close to a high for the dollar in here, with a return to much lower levels only a couple of weeks off. And the driver, you're wondering? Take your pick, but how about this headline from the NY Post: "CDO Debt could pose renewed danger for banks" for starters?
It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and as best I can figure, she won't even see the sheet music till late 2009.
Mixed Retailing Numbers It's the old goods news/bad news thing again. Good? Wal-Mart profits way up. Bad? Retail numbers down a bit:
Hey, Big Spender Yes, despite the talk about budget restraint and small government, yada, yada, yada, the gang that doesn't think straight has made the Biggest government ever. Hand me the checkbook, would yah?
The Runs: Hey Big Spender, II What kind of president would what's her name make? "Clinton status puts focus on her $20-million debt" says one headline. Gee, you think she might spend more than the nation makes as president? Lemme see: Clinton going in hock and McCain blowing by campaign finance law limits...fine choices, no?
Wholly Holey Texas That sinkhole up northeast of Houston (and 30-miles from a UFO sighting on April 30th at Baytown) has continued to grow.
Quick, Looked Surprised Department
Pakistan Heads Up Not that it will blow up all over the TV until mid to late August, but we're starting to watch headlines out of Pakistan like "Dispute over judges deepens rift in Pakistan ruling coalition." It won't last. Not past fall, it seems...
The Hots No sooner does the 13,680 acre wild fire in New Mexico get off the crawlers than it's replaced with homes being torched and scorched by wild fires in Florida.
Round-Ups Round-Up Several hundred people have been arrested/detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Iowa. The lead in to it was the take over by the feds of the National Cattle Congress fairgrounds a week or two back.
News tip: When you see the fed take over a facility for 'training' purposes, watch carefully. This time it was 'illegal immigrants' that were targeted. Dry run for larger events in the future? --- On the other hand, the headline "53 illegal immigrants held against will in Phoenix" sort of misses the point that we have immigration laws, and with laws comes enforcement, doesn't it?
Inbox: Depression Studies Good note from Jas Jain this morning:
Jas an I may have our differences on the how and the when of getting into the Greater Depression. But we don't argue on the if part. I expect we'll all know why by Christmas. --- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the UK Telegraph today that "The global slump of 2008-2009 has begun as poison spreads". Like I said, it'll be more obvious by Christmas. Which is why we'll probably buy one of those $50 converter boxes instead of a new 50" LCD marvel, tempting as it is. --- You no doubt are wondering, "If this is a replay of the 1930's George, where are the bank closures and bank holidays?"
Did you miss the run on Northern Rock last fall? The 'forced takeovers orchestrated by the Fed? Did you miss the bank closing and takeover in NW Arkansas home of what Mart? Did you miss the Father Burke Credit Union being closed down by the Feds this week in the Bronx?
Close enough to a replay for me,
thanks. Even though another big bankruptcy in the banking
world feels close. Mid summer? The Great Unraveling This from a reader:
--- clip and save section ---
Coping: Power of Media? Recently, a long-time UrbanSurvival (and Peoplenomics) reader decided to move to New Zealand. He simply sold off his home in the Chicago land area, and off he and the family went on a big adventure.
Every so week or two I get a phone call from him - and it has been intensely interesting to hear his experiences. Moving to NZ, he reports, has been a good thing in the main, but of course there are missed friends stateside and such. But, on the whole, it's been a really positive experience.
Food is not cheaper, by the way. New Zealand exports enough of it's excess food production that residents pay world market prices for almost everything.
One of the topics we have touched on is 'when will be the right time to buy a house?" Real estate prices have been coming down in New Zealand, just as they have darn near everywhere else. And it seems, they may continue to generally track real estate here, although with time lags and what have you.
All of which is background that gets me to an interesting article. "Media can send real estate into nose dive" says a Kiwi media report.
This report, as you might expect, has stirred up quite a controversy, although frankly, it's a bit like a chicken and egg argument as we see it.
(We like New Zealanders a lot, but they may have a bit too much time on their hands because they argue points like whether the city of Whanganui would be spelled with, or without, the 'h'. It would be like me spending weeks figuring out if one of the 'e's in "George" is superfluous. Does it really matter? Microsoft has already decided the issue, after all - my spell chcker in Word 2007 says there's no 'h'. Deal with it.)
I don't expect it will be 'prime time' to buy a home in most places again until as late as Q1 2010, but that's stateside. Overseas, like the disclaimer goes, "Your results may vary."
Still, a great 're-balancing' is underway, it seems. Housing is coming down, while (at least in the short term) food, gasoline, and health care are going up.
That's the point that chatting with one of New Zealand's newest residents keeps reminding me: Inflation (report due tomorrow) is not so much an 'in your face' thing yet. It's for now a rebalancing. Less money for housing (as prices come down) and more money for gas and food.
Subliminal Instructions How does one build the subliminal advertising like that link to a YouTube outing of a McCain presidential campaign subliminal? An industry insider offers instructions here, fre:
Remind us not to use subliminals, OK? Subscribe to Peoplenomics --- Send contributions to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section --- Subscribe to Peoplenomics Around The Ranch: Floating Your Boat Chief time monk Cliff has an extra boat for sale. Since we've seen a 'global coastal event' coming for a couple of years, Cliff has taken to boat making. He's currently working on a complete rebuild of what he describes as a Bolgerized Sharpie. It will be along the lines of this, but with lee boards, to make it easily beachable.
That means his earlier work, a one-off Umiak, is for sale.
So here's where you come in: Do you know of anyone who would like to buy a remarkably well-made 26 foot (or there abouts) custom Umiak? Would make a fine display piece in an upper end store (green marketing program) or, it would make a dandy 'survival boat'.
The umiak is a lot of fun to paddle, reports our chief time monk. Because the skin is flexible, it adapts to waves and paddles remarkably well. Even with one person and a large dog, it only takes an inch or two of water.
So, if you have an interest, it's in the $6,000 range. Delivery in the Pacific Northwest could be arranged, but beyond that, shipping would be your issue.
Still, a really neat boat and even though we're at 600 feet of elevation here in East Texas, I'm keeping my eye open for a floatie boat myself. After all, when the 'global coast event' shows up, I'd just as soon not be treading water. And, since it's been in model space so long, it's bound to be a significant event, but how deep? No clues.
Send me an email if you're interested in more details. Subject line Boat: george@ure.net Subscribe to Peoplenomics
Peoplenomics.com 13 Acres and Independence Part 6: Shops, Tools, and Makings Next week, Peoplenomics will be into it's economic groove with a survey of ways to get rich in theses times. But what will life be like on the other side of an economic calamity? While we're waiting to find out this week's report is a short "quickie overview" of basic tools that may come to play an important role in your life, even if you never thought of yourself as "handy". Hard times might make being "handy" a very useful thing indeed, as the people in the Southeast found out this weekend as tornadoes came calling. Part of our 13 Acres and Independence project, a short chapter on the basics of how to make almost anything and under almost any conditions seems a useful thing indeed. If you were too busy learning computer science, accounting, or day trading skills to take the industrial arts courses (especially wood shop and metal shop), here's a 'quick start' I hope you'll never need...
More For Subscribers Subscription Information
Spread the Word UrbanSurvival has a very interesting business model - one that depends on growth. So even if you don't subscribe to our premium newsletter at www.peoplenomics.com, please tell everyone you know about this site. The more this site grows, the more everything grows and the more content there will be on the free site... Click here to send 'em an invite... Thank you!
Better Living on Less Dough There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such. It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less. Still just $10. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!) ---- I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here to Put Me On Ham Gear List
Monday May 12, 2009 Oh, THAT Quake If you read our report on Friday or Saturday, you no doubt saw that the time monks and I were expecting a massive earthquake about coincident with a "big wedding" along in here. While the Jenna Bush wedding Saturday night in Crawford, TX, was about the biggest high profile wedding we could find, we didn't rule other another high profile wedding, such as the Ashlee (with Jessica doing maid of honor duties) next weekend..
I know, you're thinking, "You guys didn't really say that, did you?" Well, yeah, we did and you can click here to review last week's report/forecast. --- All this goes to underscore the problems associated with divining the future out of language shifts on the internet - there's just so much going on that linguistically, things for the balance of the year, things just keep getting hotter and hotter.
To put it another way, when a pond is really calm and glass-like, a small to medium sized rock thrown into it causes easily discernable ripples. Right now, modelspace which has in the past been relatively calm, is looking more like a bowl of spaghetti with crosslinks all over the place from this entity to that, just that tearing it all back to 'reverse directory' look-ups gets difficult. Close is good. Especially when it's a ripple from a small pebble thrown into what looks like a hurricane-tossed sea. --- Not that the time monks were as concerned as me about the 'Saturday night' window: They have the attitude that "If George can imagine it, that just about ensures that it won't happen because Universe is never that clear...". Fast forward to this morning... --- A "Powerful Earthquake Hits Western China" reports the NY Times. This one is a 7.8, which is plenty to do significant damage and go into the books as one of the biggest of the year. Things are bad enough that officials including the premier are rushing to the scene where aftershocks are continuing. Death toll is already well over 100 with many more expected. --- The timing of the quake is close to the Bush wedding. The knot was tied, as best I can figure, around 9 PM Texas time Saturday night. Here's the official run-down:
So now a bit of gnawing on time and location.
The timing of the quake was 06:28 UTC this morning, which is 1:28 AM here in Texas. That means, if the coffee has soaked in well, that the quake was about 28.5 hours off from the wedding.
But more importantly, the concern about how the quake was placed hyper-dimensionally should be noted because our concerns were focused where a quake might have hit in the US. Just to give you an idea, the quake in China was 31.1 N and 103.25 E. Had the quake hit at 31.1 N and 103.25 WEST, that would have put the quake out 25-30 northwest of Fort Stockton Texas, and just for the record, that 31.12 North location in China. Crawford Texas is about 30 miles north of 31.1 North, by the way.
So, some interesting proximities, but not a direct hit. But, then again, for a project that costs no tax dollars and is done, as we are ever so careful to acknowledge, by a couple of nutjobs with a bunch of server, it's close enough.
Memes: "Them Winds" If you've read this site for any length of time, you'll also appreciate that we've been going on endlessly about the 'gouging the earth' and the damaging winds ("them winds") in modelspace for the better part of six months - maybe it's been longer.
As the National Weather Service preliminary chart from the Storm Prediction Center graphically points out, this is far from a normal year for 'them winds':
Tornados over the weekend in the US are world news, with aid being rush to storm-ravaged states. Things were so thoroughly destroyed in one town (Picher Oklahoma) that residents may not even bother rebuilding.
While the death toll from the weekend storms was 23 at last check, hopefully people who have suffered home damage will find this weekend's Peoplenomics report ("Shops, Tools, and Makings") encouraging and helpful in reconstruction decisions and such.
Memeering: McCain Subliminals? A number of readers have sent me links to the YouTube video which purports to show subliminal messaging (outside of a paid commercial) being done by a NY Fox affiliate. While we have no knowledge of the veracity of the claims, the video is certainly interesting, to say the least.
While the problems the McCain bid has coming are likely to make this a moot point, it is nevertheless disturbing and deserving of questions being asked. Don't hold your breath, though.
Open Revolution? Ron Paul supporters are planning a revolt against the McCain campaign at the GOP convention.
The New Media Stomp, Redux "TV viewership still down in wake of 100-day writers strike", says the headline. Say, you don't think this smacks of a little corpgov blame-shifting, do you? I mean, it couldn't be that people are sick and tired of being force-fed pabulum/lowest-common-denominator mindless sitcom and survival slop, do you? Naw, tell me it ain't so....
Global Whating? 10-years of living on a sailboat have left me well supplied with Polartec -- but who thought I would be breaking out a Polartec jack to walk over to the office from the house halfway through May in East Texas??? It was 42 degrees on two digital thermometers and one analog backup this morning.
You can do the research yourself, but what I did was head for the Weather Underground's climate data for nearby Tyler, Texas. Shows that we've had more heating days and less cooling days than normal. Places like Seattle are running well ahead on heating days.
Now, I don't have time to do the learned study of such things, but Chicago hasn't needed air conditioning yet this year. And in New York, both heating and cooling days are down from 'normal'.
May not last long, although it's been a wonderful spring so far: The National Weather Service has a heat warning out for the LA Basin for later this week. The record shows that it's been a cooler than usual winter in LA, so far, though. --- While efforts to 'sell' global warming continues, I keep looking at the pictures from the Chaiten Volcano area of Chile and wonder how much smoke and ash are these going to put into the atmosphere, and what will be the impacts on the Southern Hemisphere's crop production this year if we get some serious cooling as a result?
Numbers Week Oh, boy, are there numbers this week. Not today, unless you get off on the Treasury Budget updates, but tomorrow we get import/export prices and retail sales. But, the BIGGIE is Wednesday with Inflation/CPI numbers. Then on Thursday, Industrial Production comes out, so the markets will have much to consider. --- In the UK the producer inflation numbers are out and wowzer, the sharpest increases in 22-year will likely put the brakes on the Bank of England from lowering rates.
And, if I read the G.19 Consumer Debt report from the "Fed" last week right (which showed debt going up at a 7+% annual clip) then we have plenty of inflation to look forward to here in the good old US of A. --- My continued bets on inflation before deflation, that I reiterated last week, drew a note from my deflationist pal Jas Jain when I wrote:
The scary thing is that over time, Jas's view and mine are converging: Not that the world will 'end' in 2009H1, but based on linguistics, market dynamics, and just common sense (a lack of musical chairs left on the Fed's version of the Titanic to save the next Too Big to Fail bank?) next year will be a fine time to have laid in your supplies, have reduced debt to manageable levels, and to have a back-up plan to share housing and all the other things that a Depression implies. And as Jas has already done, be in government bonds.
You don't think the timing last year of the limit on personal buying of Savings Bonds at $5,000 per social security number imposed at the end of last year was coincidental, do you? LOL. The PTB know what's coming and they have chained the doors well in advance of the bonfire of the equities.
No, Gold did not hit $2,000 an ounce in April. But the year's not over and I am still long commodities and metals. I'm betting inflation will reveal itself/rear its ugly head in the Wednesday CPI report. We shall see...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Too Hard on the "Fed"? I get emails all the time from people who take me to task on this economic point of order, or that, and many are off-put by my harsh view of the Fed as a scam to allow the Banksters a chance to charge America 6% for handling its money every year, as CONgress seems to have abdicated on this - along with a host of other powers.
Nevertheless, in an effort to be fair, a reader sent this is and I think you'll agree, it makes a good point:
Hands-On Department I do a lot of promoting of "do it yourself and save at least half' and I'm not the only one who has figured out the value of hard work. Here's an example email on point:
There's a pretty decent shopping list for tools in Peoplenomics this week. More than anything, working generally has a much higher payoff than sitting on your butt watching TV. It's the height of absurdity than people go to gyms a couple of days a week and the pay people to wash their cars. I never have figured that one out.
--- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Around the Ranch: Ham Net We only had 2-3 stations show up for the Saturday morning ham net this week. A good part of the problem was propagation. The bands were in lousy condition. --- On the other hand, there were a couple of really neat ham radio things that did happen over the weekend. One was a major victory in solving a problem with one of my vintage tube-type radios. Turned out to be switching issue.
But the other one, well, it doesn't get any better. Talked to a ham out in California who's semi-retired now, N6ECE. Turns out he was a triple A ball player and used to play at the old Sic's Stadium down in Rainer Valley in Seattle where there's a big hardware store now. This is a fellow who I watched as a kid when he was playing ball. Darned nice hobby, when you can meet up with and chat with folks that were role models back in the day.
So, what hobby did/do George Pitaki, Chet Atkins, John Sculley, Walter Cronkite, Ronnie Milsap, Patty Loveless, Joe Walsh, General Curtis LeMay, Stewart Granger, Dick Rutan, Art Bell, Gary Shandling, and King Juan Carlos of Spain, have in common (Answer if you need help). --- Passings: Doctor Ronald Parise, Friday May 9. Payload specialist on STS 35 (Columbia) and STS-67 (Endeavour). Better known as WA4SIR in some circles; now, a 'silent key'.
Peoplenomics.com 13 Acres and Independence Part 6: Shops, Tools, and Makings Next week, Peoplenomics will be into it's economic groove with a survey of ways to get rich in theses times. But what will life be like on the other side of an economic calamity? While we're waiting to find out this week's report is a short "quickie overview" of basic tools that may come to play an important role in your life, even if you never thought of yourself as "handy". Hard times might make being "handy" a very useful thing indeed, as the people in the Southeast found out this weekend as tornadoes came calling. Part of our 13 Acres and Independence project, a short chapter on the basics of how to make almost anything and under almost any conditions seems a useful thing indeed. If you were too busy learning computer science, accounting, or day trading skills to take the industrial arts courses (especially wood shop and metal shop), here's a 'quick start' I hope you'll never need...
More For Subscribers Subscription Information
Spread the Word UrbanSurvival has a very interesting business model - one that depends on growth. So even if you don't subscribe to our premium newsletter at www.peoplenomics.com, please tell everyone you know about this site. The more this site grows, the more everything grows and the more content there will be on the free site... Click here to send 'em an invite... Thank you!
Better Living on Less Dough There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such. It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less. Still just $10. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!) ---- I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here to Put Me On Ham Gear List
News from Elliott
Wave International
An explanation of this chart
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the powers That Be, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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